Chap 5: Other Factors and Summary

We now know there are a lot of off pitch factors that can influence the results of a match;

Direct factors like player injury/team news/ team transfers or manager news.

Indirect factors like pitch condition/weather/stadium and fans enthusiasum.

Motivational factors like fighting for CL/UEFA spot and even fighting for relegation.

There are however 1 more off pitch factor that I feel is the most crucial factor and cannot be factor into the charts; if a punting decision ever come across such awakward news of any club, it is better to skip the match or show hand based on the news. Experience have tell me they usually bring results up to 95%, I was highlighted to this by a experience punting fren, I was actually skeptical at first but the high hit rate whenever such a situation occured deserved a mention; here are a couple but there could be more,

Other Factors

- News of former legend or players/managers of club that past on a couple of days before the match. This usually will trigger the team wearing black armband to play above themselves and beat the Asian Handicap. This is especially true if majority of the newspaper do not print this. Usually such news can be obtained from the team website. Hit rate at 85%.

-Tragedy of a national level like earthquake/lost of life/bombings and especially the opposite team make a substanial contribution or offer flowers of condolances. Take the generous team to beat the Asian Handicap. Psychology factors come into play here as the team in moarning are probably too dishearten to play, and they are grateful for the gesture of the opposite team, hence led their guard down. Hit rate 85%

- War on the other hand can drive a team to play above themselves and beat the handicap. This is probably due to the fact the team wanted to bring the frontline war guards some cheer news and spurred them on in battlefield. Hit rate 75%

-On a day or time when there is only 1 match only for league or cup, the favourite usually fails to beat the handicap, this is especially true during mid-week matches, the only explanation I can give is that for cup match, the favouraite are usually not so keen to follow that route, choosing instead to win the league or Europe match, but for league match, a sense of overconfidence in being the only strong team playing tends to overflow the favourite. Resulting in disatorious consequences. Hit rate 65% - 70%.

-Take note of managers who always give comments prior to games or the quiet type that gives only after the match. When there are sudden switch in their actions, a passive approach from the former, before a game, bet opposite them and when the latter quiet gaffer suddenly demand a win from his team, bet that team. The reason the team will take heel from such remarks and response accordingly, another psychological effect. Hit rate 60-65%.

(PS: Yu guys found out some interesting fact kindly shared or contribute ok, I can't do it all by myself)

All pundits have their own systems to pick match winners. Most of these systems take into account into the same 1,2 or at most 3 factors that could affect match results. As discussed, match results can be affected by a myriad of different factors, even those that are not so directly connected to football. You need to discover new facts to gain an edge. Other Factors are good to keep an eye on as it is not so clear and straightforward like Direct/Motivation factors . Bookmakers also do not place as much emphasis when deriving the odds on this as they rightly should.

Some of the betting public (like myself) also employ elaborate statistical systems which have the same problem of being too myopic in outlook. In such systems, fixed weightage is also assigned to various factors which might or might not be accurate. Football match prediction is much like an organic process where the importance of a factor or factors changes from match to match, from team to team and when under different circumstances. Statistical systems should be used together with an organic approach in the analysis for each match and not be relied solely upon. Treat each league, each Cup competition and each match as a unique proposition every time because the factors are dynamic and are often changing in different ways. This is not as easy as it sounds but is a worthwhile challenge to take on given the knowledge that you have now.

I would highlight my charts pros and cons but treat it as a guide first , come out your own style if able...take heel from unexpected news and make you judgement as to whether to abandon the bet. Don't be scare to switch charts when yu feel some are not following what is expected. Satistics are supposed to highlight all this so that yu can correct or cut lost.

- Home Advantage Chart

Direct Factors:moderate
Indirect Factors :stadium/pitch/fans are very strong but weather is very weak
Motivation Factors :weak
Useage:Good for 3rd week all the way to end of season, but weakness in winter/summer time.
Hints:Look out for begining of swings in +ve or -ve and follow accordingly

- Form Chart

Direct Factors: strong
Indirect Factors:moderate
Motivation Factors: moderate to strong (however to a certain amount of match only)
Useage: Good for 8th week all the way to end of season
Hints:The nearest 1 tends to swing -ve at the end of season (most of the time)

- Sequence Chart (Test Stage)

Direct Factors: strong
Indirection Factors: moderate
Motivational Factors: extremelly strong
Useage: Good for 3rd week to 1 month before season end
Hints: New have not observe the flow pattern like the other 2 charts, so no comments.

So good luck and I hope yu worms out there benefit from the webs spin by a fallen spider.