Chap 4: Sequence Chart

The Sequence of Asian Handicap is interesting and easier to digest than the first 2 charts ; 85% of the majority of betting dogs (I come to contact) practise this. The theories involved are mercury fiery hot when it hits but pluto cold when it collapse. It usually involves bucking the winning or losing trend after 2 to 3 games in a row, and from my observation, there is some truth in the selection from the older or more experience punter, as they win most of the time, but what happens when there is a run of immerse period, do yu switch or abandon...? I have personally encountered sane person lost their whole fortune in buckling a sequence.

So what accounts for a realistic approach to this method of betting? I believe it all boils down to the Motivation of a team. Hence, yu can say the sequence chart is a measurement of how motivated a team are over a span of time (depends on how longer a team keeps beating the handicap or losing it). I would say buck the trend from the 5th team to the last 5th in the league (like every 2 game win or lose, reverse betting). But follow the trend for those in the top 4 and bottom 4. The general public usually selects 1 of the team in a fixture and forego the other; this is the utimate downfall to a analysis of a match, the right way is to compare the sequence between the 2 team and come to a conclusion. My Chart takes care of this and will involve a statistical approach to conjure up the predictions.

There is some confusion between Form Chart and Sequence Chart but it is quite easy to differentiate actually; the latter measures motivation whereas the former measures the team's win/draw/lost over a period of certain matches wrt the asian handicap.

Motivation is the deciding factor when all the usual factors have been taken into account. Different teams are motivated differently in different degrees at different times and in different situations. Motivation is thus a factor that differ greatly depending on the team and the situation . It is thus a more difficult factor for the bookmakers to assimilate correctly into the odds, save for the end of the season when it is obvious which teams are fighting relegation and which have nothing to fight for.

It is important to know what motivates the different kinds of clubs. What follows is a breakdown of the different objectives for the different levels of clubs.

To the top teams in Europe at club level, ultimate glory is to win the UEFA Champion League. All top footballers and their managers for that matter , dream of tasting CL glory. Domestic league matches are of secondary importance when there are CL matches just around the corner. The CL is open to each national associations domestic champions, as well as clubs who finish just behind them in the domestic championship table and extremely lucrative in terms of fees from television rights. Those who finish just behind those who qualify for the CL go into the UEFA Cup competition.

As you can see, the top teams in Europe often play a huge amount of games each season and need to make priorities on which competitions to go for. Due to the physical strain on the players, it is practically impossible for top teams to challenge seriously in every competition. In fact, it is good to look out for teams that have done unusually well in their domestic league and qualified for CL unexpectedly. Those teams tend to be unable to cope with the added season long pressure of competing on both fronts against the top teams and often do very poorly both in the CL and in the domestic league the following season. Same goes for UEFA Cup team qualifiers.

Near the end of a season, when there are a limited number of points to play for in domestic leagues, it will be clear if teams have already secured the league title; are still fighting for CL or UEFA Cup places; fighting for relegation or have nothing to fight for. So thus, the Sequence Chart becomes more irrelevant it its analysis, but it can start as early as the 3rd game (Home-Advantage Chart), and incoporates all the direct factors/indirect factors (Form Chart).

It is a hybraid between the 2 previous charts with the sole disadvantage of non application 1 month before season ends. But that is just in theory only, reason being i have thought about it for over a year now after watching my buddies apply this theory with no sense or direction whatsoever and wonder if a 2 sided approach instead of 1 of the side would be better. The maths are also fresh and yet to test new grounds. Hence, I will use the top 6 leagues in 2006 to enforce the theory of the chart.

The theory side;

- If a team beats the handicap give 1 or lose give -1, if win half/lose half give 0.5 or -0.5 respectively.

- A small factor of is added to the winning team for 2 game in a row (sequence) and the factor is double for 3 game in a row, triple for 4 games in a row and the binomial goes on.

- Similarly, for the losing sequence it applies but the nett result will be in -ve.

- Take the sum of the home and away rating and that will give you the sequence gap.

The satistical side;

Note the Sequence Gap vs the final results and create frequency chart/table. Take the next data in a new Sequence Gap (next match) and compare to the nearest. Make the predictions!

As I have highlighted; the theory is new and the maths are fresh, there are no previous whole year results to show to the public, I only have now are research and data will be collected from the top 6 leagues and prediction will be make. Pls take the predictions with a pinch of salt as i do not know what will be the outcome as I write; but i have a strong feeling this chart will be the strongest ever predictive tool in the industry in years to come. Those who like to come along for the experience are welcome, but small punts are advised. Good Luck!